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Trendrating White Papers

AMC – New Direction for an Actively Managed Certificate

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Markets exhibit significant return dispersion in all types of market conditions and this cross-sectional dispersion in returns should make a compelling case in support of active management as the opportunities to outperform underlying benchmarks is real.

Extracting Performance from Return Dispersion in Equity Markets

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Equity markets exhibit signicant return dispersion in all phases and Trendrating’s assertion is that this cross-sectional dispersion in returns makes a compelling case in support of active management as the opportunity to outperform underlying benchmarks is rea

Market Return Dispersion & Opportunities For Active Managers

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Markets exhibit significant return dispersion in all types of market conditions and Trendrating’s assertion is that this cross-sectional dispersion in returns makes a compelling case in support of active management as the opportunities to outperform underlying benchmarks is real. Yet according to SPIVA, 80% of US active funds and 79% of European funds underperform their respective benchmarks.

Performance Risk Management

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Portfolio risk management is generally confined to volatility management & market risk management. Whilst these measures of risk are of significant importance for the portfolio management function, they are measures of deviation from an underlying benchmark in the case of volatility management, or of probability of loss in the case of market risk management. We introduce the notion of Performance Risk Management that provides a framework for capturing the risk of absolute or negative portfolio performance.

TCR – Trend Capture Rating & Dynamic Risk Management

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

This paper presents a 15 year analysis of the time varying rating of a Global Market Portfolio and its linkage to returns over subsequent holding periods we also document the same for the Developed Europe & USA regional market portfolios.

Trend Capture Driven Risk Control – Developed Europe Large Caps (2008-2010)

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Trend Capture is a powerful tool for risk control as it facilitates significant drawdown reduction during Bear Market phases that limits losses so that the investment portfolios begin their ascent from a higher point when uptrends resume.  We present an analysis for the period January 01, 2008 through December 31, 2010 on a universe of large cap European  stocks to demonstrate the significant performance uplift that investors would have gained from using Trendrating.

Trend Capture Driven Risk Control – Developed US Large Caps (2008-2010)

Arun Soni – Global Head of Strategy

Trend Capture is a powerful tool for risk control as it facilitates significant drawdown reduction during Bear Market phases that limits losses so that the investment portfolios begin their ascent from a higher point when uptrends resume. We present an analysis for the period January 01, 2008 through December 31, 2010 on a universe of large cap US stocks to demonstrate the significant performance uplift that investors would have gained from using Trendrating.

Academic White Papers

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

Brian Hurst, Yao Hua Ooi, Lasse H. Pedersen, Ph.D.

We study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1903, extending the existing evidence by more than 80 years.

Anomalies and Market Efficiency

G. William Schwert

Anomalies are empirical results that seem to be inconsistent with maintained theories of asset-pricing behaviour.

Degrees of Difficulty: Indications of Active Success

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Degrees of Difficulty: Indications of Active Success

Dispersion and Alpha Conversion

Morgan Stanley

How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill

Dissecting Anomalies

Eugene F. Fama, Kenneth R. French

The anomalous returns associated with net stock issues, accruals, and momentum are pervasive; they show up in all size groups (micro, small, and big) in cross-section regressions, and they are also strong in sorts, at least in the extremes.

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficency

Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Sheridan Titman

This paper documents that strategies which buy stocks that have performed well in the past and sell stocks that have performed poorly in the past generate significant positive returns over 3- to 12-month holding periods.